SurveyUSA (10/30-11/1, likely voters, 10/16-18 in parens):
Al Franken (DFL): 39 (39)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 44 (41)
Dean Barkley (I): 16 (18)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
SurveyUSA (10/29-30, likely voters, 10/26-27 in parens):
Ashwin Madia (D): 41 (44)
Erik Paulsen (R-inc): 46 (45)
David Dillon (IP): 10 (n/a)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
SurveyUSA (10/29-30, likely voters, 10/20-21 in parens):
Elwyn Tinklenberg (DFL): 45 (47)
Michele Bachmann (R-inc): 46 (44)
Bob Anderson (IP): 6 (6)
(MoE: ±4%)
SurveyUSA has had some of the kindest numbers for Republicans this cycle in Minnesota, and their latest statewide polling is no exception — Obama only leads McCain by 49-46 here. The Pollster.com composite has Obama leading McCain by 13 points. Either all the other pollsters are wildly wrong, or SUSA has some serious issues with their Minnesota methodology. I’m leaning towards the latter.
One thing in particular is worth noting: the kids just can’t enough of the GOP. Paulsen leads Madia by 46-37 among voters between the ages of 18 and 34, and Bachmann leads Tinklenberg by 49-39 in this age bracket. (In the statewide sample, they break by 56-40 for Obama and 44-37 for Franken.) We’ve seen this phenomenon fairly regularly in SUSA’s Minnesota polling.
Of all these numbers, the 6th CD top lines do seem the most believable — it’s perhaps not hard to imagine Bachmann’s Hardball backlash fading a bit in this R+5 district, but SUSA’s overall Republican bias in Minnesota leaves me skeptical of this entire package.
….but they consistently throw off the curve with virtually every poll. What’s noteworthy here is that Obama’s would-be three point lead here is in the same sample as Coleman’s mere five-point lead. This narrowing of the spread between Obama and Franken was evident in the more realistic Star Tribune poll released this morning showing Obama up by 11 and Franken by 4. If this pattern holds, I’m more confident of Franken skating past the finish line on Tuesday as well. And if this same crappy sample has Bachmann leading by only one, then Tinklenberg is probably poised to win. Tougher call on Madia though. That slimeball Dillon could be the spoiler there.
I spent most of my life from age 0 to 23 in that district (I’m now 32). My family is still there, most in the conservative western part of the district.
I still believe Bachmann has to be seen as the favorite. El has gotten all of the endorsements. But this area is very anti-abortion. Most probably have no idea who Chris Matthews is.
I hope I’m wrong.
James, you always know just how to make me laugh when I’m avoiding writing papers that are of course due tomorrow, that I’ve of course know about for the past week. Good times were had by all.
BTW… On a side note, what kind of sadistic Political Science Professor assigns a paper due the DAY before a Presidential General Election. Yes Kaskla! I’m talking to you! haha Rant over.
that I really hope SUSA is screwing up massively in this state. Nobody else has shown the Presidential election so close there recently.
I’m a big SUSA booster, but. . .
SUSA seems to have had a lot of trouble polling young people this election. Until fairly recently the SUSA polls on the NC Senate race kept giving Dole big leads among the 18-29 group. And there are other races I’ve seen SUSA give republicans unusually high support among younger voters.
I think part of SUSA’s problem with young voters is that they include only registered voters in their likely voter screen. Since Minnesota has same day registration many first time voters do not register until election day.
But I could believe the MN-03 poll. I just have a sneaking suspicion that Madia will underperform. Don’t really know why, he just reminds me of 2006 candidates who failed to close the deal.
that the youth vote will come out as it should, strongly in favor of Democrats, than Bachmann is a goner. Being that far up with the youth vote and only one point up over Tinklenberg over all, he could win.
Hell, Tinklenberg could win and not Madia. If Madia doesn’t win this time, we HAVE to go all out in 2010 against Paulsen or he will have that seat for a long time.